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OPINION

On July 23, 2026, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Manila to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. It was later disclosed that the meeting lasted a scant 35 minutes and that it produced no visible breakthrough. In Russia’s readout, Lavrov again stated that continued Western arms supplies to Ukraine is unacceptable.

At the same time, the on-and-off U.S. – Iran war is steadily escalating. Of particular interest is Iran’s ability to accurately target and hit valuable U.S. assets throughout the region, and more importantly, to kill U.S. personnel. There is no reason to doubt that Iran, a nation where the majority of college graduates are women, has indigenously acquired the technology to manufacture maneuverable high-speed missiles capable of penetrating U.S. defenses. However, it is not known to possess high-resolution satellites capable of dynamically pinpointing specific high-value targets such as radars, hangars with expensive planes and drones, and more importantly, barracks. That is not to say it does not have such technology, only that it is not publicly known to have it. On the other hand, Russia and China, who do have it, could be forwarding such intelligence to Iran. If so, that would make either, or both, active participants in the conflict on par with the U.S. and Europe in the Ukrainian war. The difference is that both Russia and China deny any such involvement whereas the U.S. and Europe publicly acknowledge it.

The potential for these seemingly unrelated conflicts to merge into an uncontrollable cauldron is much higher than one might assume. The fact is, the interests of Russia and China on the one hand, and the U.S. and Europe on the other, are on opposite sides of the fence. As it pertains to Ukraine, it is intolerable and unacceptable for Russia not to enforce its stated terms; that would be, from their point of view, tantamount to a strategic defeat that might precipitate the demise of the Russian State. Unfortunately, this could well be considered the very set of conditions that might trigger the use of nuclear weapons as defined by President Putin when he lowered the threshold for their use in 2024.

Similarly, in terms of size, Iran is a large mountainous country, larger than France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom combined, with many places where to hide things. Should Iran eventually conclude that the only true deterrent to U.S. – Israeli attacks is to acquire nuclear weapons, it might in short order find a way to do so and present the world with a fait accompli. What would follow is anyone’s guess.

The only way to ensure a peaceful outcome is to meet the legitimate concerns and rights of the belligerents and their protégés. Given the religious and ethnic strife in the region, that, of course, is the ultimate test of tolerance.